Moldova's Strategic Importance to Europe

With presidential elections and a referendum on EU membership scheduled for October 20, Moldova finds itself at the epicenter of Russia's aggressive campaign of hybrid warfare. The country of about 2.6 million is at a pivotal moment in its history: the elections will not only determine Moldova's geopolitical alignment—whether it continues its pro-Western path or shifts toward Russia—but also shape Europe's future.

Russia's intensified activities in Moldova reveal the country's key role in Moscow's larger geopolitical strategy. By maintaining influence in Moldova, Russia aims to preserve its foothold in Eastern Europe and exert pressure on Ukraine. This goes beyond regional control; it's a demonstration of Russia's global ambitions. Successfully influencing Moldova would showcase Russia's ability to project power far from its borders, push back against Western influence, and assert dominance in what it considers its rightful sphere of influence.

In Moldova's presidential election campaign, Russia is employing a strategy of backing multiple candidates to challenge the pro-European incumbent and frontrunner, Maia Sandu, Moldova’s sitting president. This approach aims to fragment the political landscape and potentially force a runoff that could benefit Moscow-aligned interests. As of this writing, twelve candidates are running against Sandu with many reportedly receiving support from Russia through sanctioned fugitive oligarchs like Ilan Shor. All of the candidates attack not just the president, but also the pro-European path that she represents. This tactic is part of a broader strategy that targets the EU membership referendum and the 2025 parliamentary elections, too. By dividing the electorate, Russia hopes to pave the way for a more Moscow-friendly parliament in the future – and alter Moldova's geopolitical trajectory.

Disinformation campaign

Russia's hybrid-war tactics in Moldova have intensified significantly in recent months, revealing a sophisticated, multi-faceted approach to influence the upcoming vote. At the core of this strategy is a widespread disinformation campaign to flood Moldovan media and social networks. These efforts spread false narratives about the EU, NATO, and the current pro-Western government. They aim to cast doubt on Moldova's European aspirations and instill fear about closer Western ties.

The disinformation campaign extends to the highest levels of Russia's administration. In a stark example, Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova, in an interview[1] in early September, drew inflammatory comparisons between President Sandu's policies and those of the Third Reich. Zakharova also accused Sandu of implementing a Western-backed "Ukraine scenario" in Moldova, further illustrating the aggressive nature of Russia's narrative warfare.

Perhaps most alarming, there are credible reports of illegal financing of the campaigns of multiple puppet candidates. These Moscow-friendly figures who though they present themselves as independent voices appear to be coordinated to dilute the pro-European vote and potentially force a runoff that could favor a Russia-aligned candidate. The scale and sophistication of this financial interference suggests a well-orchestrated attempt to manipulate Moldova's democratic process. Moldova’s security services estimate that Russia spent over $55 million[2] in the 2023 local election, and these numbers are likely larger ahead of the more important presidential vote.

Vote buying, a tactic not unfamiliar in the region, has also intensified. There are accounts of vulnerable citizens, particularly in rural areas, being offered money or goods in exchange for their votes. In April, Moldovan authorities seized over one million euros[3] from a group of Moldovans returning from Moscow; they had participated in the launch[4] of the new political bloc called Victory led by Shor. Furthermore, a recent journalistic investigation[5] revealed that a group of Moldovan Orthodox priests traveled to Moscow at Shor's invitation. There, they received MIR banking cards – a Russian card payment system for electronic fund transfers established by the Central Bank of Russia – loaded with what was termed “aid for the church.”

Moldova as a strategic fulcrum    

These aggressive hybrid tactics must be viewed within the broader context of Moldova's strategic importance to Russia. Sandwiched between Romania and Ukraine, Moldova serves as a crucial buffer zone between Russia and the West. Russia's potential control or significant influence over Moldova, combined with its existing sway over Belarus, would create a strategic encirclement of Ukraine. This would allow Russia to exert pressure on Ukraine from two directions: from Belarus on Ukraine's northern border, and from Moldova on its southwestern flank. Such a geopolitical configuration would significantly enhance Russia's ability to influence or potentially threaten Ukraine's security and sovereignty. This strategic positioning would also extend Russia's reach into Central Europe and create a continuous band of influence from the Baltic to the Black Sea. It would complicate NATO and EU efforts to engage with countries in this region, reinforcing Russia's position as a dominant player in Eastern Europe.

Moldova's breakaway region of Transnistria, hosting Russian troops, adds another layer of complexity. It serves as a foothold for Russian influence: a military presence close to Ukraine's western border and a potential launching pad for further destabilization efforts.

The upcoming elections and EU referendum constitutes a critical juncture for Moldova. A move toward closer EU integration would be a significant blow to Russia's regional ambitions, potentially inspiring other former Soviet republics to follow suit. Conversely, a pivot toward Russia would solidify Moscow's influence in the region and deal a setback to Western efforts to promote democracy and rule of law in Eastern Europe.

Digital Threats and Diaspora: Moldova's Electoral Frontline

The influence of social media in Moldova's presidential elections, particularly accounts linked to fugitive oligarchs with Russian ties, demands constant vigilance. During U.S. secretary of state Anthony Blinken's visit to Moldova in June, Meta removed over 1,326 Facebook accounts and 80 pages[6] and groups linked to Shor, highlighting the scale of the issue. However, the threat persists; a recent report by Watchdog NGO[7] revealed that Russian-funded oligarchs spent over €130,000 on sponsored content in just three months. This underscores the critical need for ongoing monitoring, swift action against malicious accounts, and public education on digital manipulation. As the election approaches, social media platforms must take responsibility for detecting and removing malicious content. Moldovan authorities and international partners should provide support and oversight to ensure the integrity of the online information space and, consequently, the electoral process.

The Moldovan diaspora, particularly those in Germany and other European countries, plays a crucial role in this electoral landscape. In the second round of the 2020 presidential elections, diaspora accounted for almost 16 percent of the total vote. Historically, the diaspora vote has been overwhelmingly pro-European, often providing a critical counterbalance to more Russia-leaning domestic voters. However, there's a palpable sense of disappointment among many expatriates regarding the pace of reforms in Moldova. This disillusionment could lead to lower turnout, a scenario that would undoubtedly benefit pro-Russian candidates. It's imperative, therefore, that the diaspora recognizes the gravity of this election.      

Their participation is not just about supporting a specific candidate or party; it's about protecting Moldova's European trajectory at a time when it's under unprecedented threat. The diaspora's vote can serve as a bulwark against Russian interference and a catalyst for continued democratic reforms. Moldovans abroad should be encouraged to mobilize, to reach out to their communities in cities across Europe, and to make their voices heard. By participating in large numbers, they can send a powerful message about Moldova's future direction and help counteract the effects of voter manipulation and disinformation at home. In essence, the diaspora's engagement could be the decisive factor in safeguarding Moldova's democratic institutions and its aspirations for European integration.

In the run up to election day, the international community must remain vigilant and engaged. Supporting Moldova's efforts to combat disinformation, ensure electoral integrity, and safeguard its democratic processes is crucial. The outcome of this vote will have implications far beyond Moldova's borders, potentially shaping the future of European security and the balance of power between East and West. In this high-stakes geopolitical chess game, Moldova may seem like a small piece, but its strategic importance should not be underestimated. The intensification of Russia's hybrid-war tactics ahead of the October 20 vote is a clear indication of just how much is at stake.

As Moldovans prepare to cast their ballots, they do so not just for their own future, but for the future of the entire region.